You need these ingredients:
- The scientists polled for whether they're rising up need to be randomly sampled from the population of 7M
- A threshold for the fraction of scientists rising up to consider an uprising to be occurring (e.g. 90% of scientists rising up indicates an uprising)
Then you can poll your scientists and feed the results into the Binomial test to find out whether there is statistical evidence to support the hypothesis that an uprising is occurring.
Note that the sample size to do this might be quite small. In general, the required sample size is not dependent on the size of the population, but rather on how close the actual fraction of scientists rising up is to your chosen threshold. If the true fraction of scientists rising up is much smaller than your threshold, say 10%, and your threshold is 90%, it might only take a random sample of 10-20 scientists to be confident there's no uprising. But if the true fraction is 89.99999% it would take a huge sample to be confident that no uprising is occurring.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_test
You need these ingredients: - The scientists polled for whether they're rising up need to be randomly sampled from the population of 7M - A threshold for the fraction of scientists rising up to consider an uprising to be occurring (e.g. 90% of scientists rising up indicates an uprising)
Then you can poll your scientists and feed the results into the Binomial test to find out whether there is statistical evidence to support the hypothesis that an uprising is occurring.
Note that the sample size to do this might be quite small. In general, the required sample size is not dependent on the size of the population, but rather on how close the actual fraction of scientists rising up is to your chosen threshold. If the true fraction of scientists rising up is much smaller than your threshold, say 10%, and your threshold is 90%, it might only take a random sample of 10-20 scientists to be confident there's no uprising. But if the true fraction is 89.99999% it would take a huge sample to be confident that no uprising is occurring.