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>the prior number ignores the cumulative probability that you have died as a <50 yr old during all years prior to 2016

Ah you're right about that. Looks like I'm probably way off. This random thing google turned up [0] says that a 25 y/o male has like a ~70% chance to make it to 50!

>Given that all of us will die

Something doesn't feel right about this, but I can't figure out what. I'll let it simmer and assume you're correct in the meantime.

[0] - http://flowingdata.com/2015/09/23/years-you-have-left-to-liv...



yeah, the probability of death depends on a ton of priors so assuming the distribution is uniform is not quite right either.

just intuitively though, a probability of .7% for dying before 50 seems way too low




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