I wonder what the margin of error is on that one in 4 million rate since the sam... | Hacker News

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		invisible on March 20, 2018 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Dr... I wonder what the margin of error is on that one in 4 million rate since the sample size is one. Also of note: > Arizona has experienced a surge of pedestrian fatalities recently, with more than 10 in a single week of March in Phoenix alone. The state has the highest rate of pedestrian fatalities in the United States.

ajb on March 20, 2018 [–]

The sample size is not one. The sample size is 4 million. The 5% and 95% quantiles of the posterior are roughly one in 11 million and one in 800,000.

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