From one armchair economist to another I suspect the Federal Reserve will have something to do with what I wouldn't call a "recession" per se, but a slowing of growth through interest rate hikes.
Fed doesn't have much room to play with interest rates currently, and won't until we see a meaningful pickup in productivity, or else they risk further depressing investment into productive assets and rerouting it into speculative assets (high interest rate = high cost of borrowing/lending = high friction = slows economy down).
We would observe a productivity increase through wage growth, as would be expected in a high employment environment (high demand for labor, low supply sets price of labor [wages] high) but I don't see anything from my viewpoint within the embedded and IoT industry that will meaningfully increase productivity in the near future. So more of the same we are experiencing now
Unless you see some new tech that will improve productivity, in which case please do share!
Ah - that's an interesting perspective I had not considered. I was basing my prediction on the stronger than expected job gains, GDP growth forecasts, and how the Fed is cutting back on quantitative easing.
Keeping an eye on the US inflation report coming out this Wednesday should provide more guidance on what the Fed may do - if it's higher than expected I think the Fed will probably raise rates by another .25%.
