I believe this sentiment is spot on. Musks myopic focus on Mars has always been puzzling to me. There are vast fortunes to be made in many areas, the easiest, most immediate in my view is orbital tourism to inflatable habitat destinations. Current falcon, not even heavy is sufficient, lift here.
Also, when dream chaser becomes operational, there will be a strong sense of REAL progress.
Edit to clarify, I'm referring to the drastic cost reduction reusability gives to reaching orbit, as the parent of this post says. I am saying there are a lot of other desirable, profitable ventures, other than settling Mars, that cheap access to space makes achievable.
> Elon Musk: "Did you hear the joke about the guy who made a small fortune in the space industry?" Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
That's presumably a variation on the airline joke of the same form. I've heard it about Richard Branson, but don't know if that is the original source.
The claim is that Richard Branson wa asked how to become a millionaire after he'd start Virgin Atlantic, and answered "you become a billionaire and start an airline".
The way it's put there, it sounds like it had already been around a while. It's possible Branson was the first person to apply it to airlines. I see a lot of people attributing it to Robert Crandall, former CEO of American Airlines, but can't find anything actually quoting him on it. He did say, "A lot of people came into the airline business. Most of them promptly exited, minus their money," which is pretty similar in spirit.
I kinda think he's a zealot. Super committed to a cause. People buy in to the cause. Some burn out and some thrive. I think it's unethical, but those recent grads are pretty enthusiastic about their 80 hour weeks.
True believers thrive. I wish there was a way to find true believers without burning out a bunch of kids.
We could live in space stations. Hook up a few inflatable habs in a ring, give it a spin and get 0.5 or 0.7 gravity.
Got your human backup population. Much closer to Earth so if something goes wrong (asteroid) they can just wait it out and pop back down when it all settles down.
Living on Mars? Seems too tricky. Got to get back up the gravity well if you want to leave.
I'm sorry but anybody that has studied this comes to the conclusion that Mars is easier. Where are you gone get your resources for the space station, where are you gone get water, fuel, food and so on? You would need constant delivery of all kinds of stuff, they could never be independent.
On Mars you have an atmosphere that gives you unlimited CO2 and Nitrogen. Plants can grow in compressed atmosphere. Mars has dirt that can be cleaned to grow plants. Mars has tons of H20 that means you can make rocket fuel and you have enough water for the people living there.
On mars you have the materials need to build radiation resistant living quarters (lots of dirt). Doing the same for a space station is incredibly difficult and expensive.
Mars gravity is pretty easy to overcome, specially because you can produce rocket fuel on mars. Ships can land, drop people and cargo, refuel and fly back.
Think people on Mars that find they enjoy the independence of being 4 to 20 light minutes from Earth will spread the word and that distance will be seen as a positive, not a negative.
You're exposed to too many of the same risks as Earth. Warfare, engineered plagues, rogue AI. Mars orbital distance from Earth gives it a safety gap LEO doesn't have, and an independent source of raw materials including fuel. Also orbital facilities are exposed to additional risks such as solar flares and Kessler Syndrome. He has actually thought this through.
That's not to say orbital habitats are a bad idea as such. We're going to need them. Its just that on their own they don't really solve the problem.
I'd consider it, absolve me of my debt, worlds data in a database sent to mars, and a person of the opposite sex that likes me-vise-versa. I'd consider the possibility of dying there. Easy to say though not sure.
I imagine they'd send helpful/scientists that would be worth something.
Also, when dream chaser becomes operational, there will be a strong sense of REAL progress.
Edit to clarify, I'm referring to the drastic cost reduction reusability gives to reaching orbit, as the parent of this post says. I am saying there are a lot of other desirable, profitable ventures, other than settling Mars, that cheap access to space makes achievable.