I suspect this might have an impact. The timeline though will be ten to twenty years, optimistically.
1. Eligible property will have to change hands and land in the right hands to make the projects happen. That's the nature of redevelopment, someone has to be willing to knock down a profitable building in hopes of building something more profitable.
2. The rate at which property will change hands will correlate to the legal certainty it can be redeveloped. Until new legislation successfully survives court challenges, the uncertainty will swirl around its "by right" provisions.
3. The trades base will affect the cost of construction and hence the viability of projects. Imagine there is some number /n/ of plumbers in the Bay area. At some threshold amount of construction, these plumbers are all in demand, and so the price of plumbing rises. This happens across several trades and formerly viable pro forma's pencil out poorly with the new cost structure.
4. People sitting on the land now are already in a wait and see mode. As land becomes more desirable to developers, prices go up. Rising prices attract speculators hoping to sell on. The rate at which developable land flows to competent developers remains moderate.
5. Five years from identification of a feasible redevelopment site for multifamily housing to full occupancy would be pretty quick even in a relatively development friendly culture. Research, options, due diligence, financing, entitlement, design, bidding, construction and leasing...any one [or several] can run out over a year.
Throw in the normal rate economic and financial cycling and the sorts of effects experience indicates these have on the construction and housing sectors, and even in the next ten years, there will likely be a period where half of all projects in the pipeline die.
1. Eligible property will have to change hands and land in the right hands to make the projects happen. That's the nature of redevelopment, someone has to be willing to knock down a profitable building in hopes of building something more profitable.
2. The rate at which property will change hands will correlate to the legal certainty it can be redeveloped. Until new legislation successfully survives court challenges, the uncertainty will swirl around its "by right" provisions.
3. The trades base will affect the cost of construction and hence the viability of projects. Imagine there is some number /n/ of plumbers in the Bay area. At some threshold amount of construction, these plumbers are all in demand, and so the price of plumbing rises. This happens across several trades and formerly viable pro forma's pencil out poorly with the new cost structure.
4. People sitting on the land now are already in a wait and see mode. As land becomes more desirable to developers, prices go up. Rising prices attract speculators hoping to sell on. The rate at which developable land flows to competent developers remains moderate.
5. Five years from identification of a feasible redevelopment site for multifamily housing to full occupancy would be pretty quick even in a relatively development friendly culture. Research, options, due diligence, financing, entitlement, design, bidding, construction and leasing...any one [or several] can run out over a year.
Throw in the normal rate economic and financial cycling and the sorts of effects experience indicates these have on the construction and housing sectors, and even in the next ten years, there will likely be a period where half of all projects in the pipeline die.
There's no silver bullet.