It bugs me so much when people say that those black hole pictures “aren’t ‘real’ photographs, they’re composites created from reams of data and math.” All audiovisual media are like that!
It’s not, but I can understand how it might look that way to a tech industry professional used to dealing with scams (indeed, there are lots of scam-adjacent startups with quantum-flavored branding). Real science and engineering are just very difficult and take a long time. You can go to the arXiv, read the papers, and see the progress and breakthroughs that are made every year. But scientists are relatively honest, so even their breakthroughs are incremental.
this does not explain something like the manhattan project.
its not necessarily time that real science and engineering takes, but resources.
there's lots of fast progress happening in areas that get a lot of resources invested into them, and much slower on areas that dont have financial champions. moving fast doesn't necessitate that something is a scam
Sorry, I'm not sure I follow what the disagreement is? I don't claim that moving fast necessitates that something is a scam.
In any case (and I don't think this bears on your point, it's just something I'd like to add), building a quantum computer is very unlike building a nuclear fission device. Echoing my other comments here, it's almost misleading to call it "building a quantum computer," as that puts people in mind of 'unlocking' some single discrete technology in a strategy game tech tree. It's not that at all; it's a huge umbrella of (in many cases) extremely sophisticated technologies. The Manhattan project, as complex and astonishing a feat as it was, was a little closer to the strategy-game vision of research in that way. There's a reason it was possible in 3-4 years in the 1940s!
Maybe I should clarify that this isn't meant in a combative way, although it is in defense of scientists, who shouldn't be liable for other people's marketing.
Here's what's going on here: there's a way that people talk past each other, because they mean different things by the same words, because they ultimately have different cultures and values.
There's one kind of person (let's call them "technologists," but I'm sure there's a better word) who feels deeply and intuitively that the point of a technology is to Create Shareholder Value. There's another kind (let's call them "scientists") who feels deeply and intuitively that the point of a technology is to Evince That We Have Known The Mind Of God. I think that these two kinds of people have a hard time understanding one another. Sometimes they don't realize, as strange as it sounds, that the other exists.
There are many scientists who have been working on problems falling loosely under the umbrella of "quantum computing" for a few decades now. Most of them are not literally Building A Quantum Computer, or even trying to. Not exactly. For this reason it might be better to call the field "things you can do with coherent control of isolated quantum systems" than "quantum computing." There are many strange and wonderful things that you can see when you have good coherent control of isolated quantum systems. The scientists are largely interested in seeing those things, in order to Evince That We Have Known The Mind Of God. One sort of strange and wonderful thing, way down the line, is maybe factoring big numbers? The scientists honestly call that a "goal," because it would be strange and wonderful indeed. But it's not really the goal. The scientists don't really care about it for its own sake, and certainly not for the sake of Creating Shareholder Value. It's just one thing that would Evince That We Have Known The Mind Of God.
Incidentally, over those last couple of decades, we've gotten way better at coherent control of isolated quantum systems, and have, in many ways, succeeded at Evincing That We Have Known The Mind Of God again and again. We have made, and continue to make, amazing progress. One day we probably will factor large numbers. But that's not really the goal for the scientists.
On the other hand, there are "technologists" who hear about the goal of factoring large numbers, take this to be, in some sense, "the point" (that is, a proxy for Creating Shareholder Value), and expect it to happen in short order. They raise lots of money and promise a payout. They might act in very "commercial" ways, telling people what things are going to happen when, using an idiosyncratic, personal definition of truth. This is understood and expected in commercial situations. They and their creditors may be disappointed.
The trouble is that it's hard for people on the outside to tell the difference between the scientists and the technologists! This makes things confusing. On some level, this is a failure of science communication: laypeople hear about breakthroughs (from scientists), then don't see the promises of technologists immediately fulfilled, they get confused, and they start to think the scientists are lying. But they're not! They're different people.
Another thing that laypeople don't really know is that there are commercially-useful and near-commercially-useful technologies using coherent control of isolated quantum systems. They've come out of the same research program, but aren't strictly "quantum computing." I don't know why it's not more widely known that quantum sensors made out of qubits (usually a different kind of qubit than the kind used for computing applications!) are on the market today, and beat other sensors along a variety of axes.
This might sound like goalpost-moving, but I promise you it's not. If it sounds like goalpost-moving, it's because there are two different relevant groups of people you hadn't previously resolved!
Here's an analogous situation that might clarify the dynamic somewhat:
1. Sam Altman: [tells a tall tale to raise 100 quintillion dollars]
2. Outside observer: "hey, these so-called AI researchers have been pulling the wool over our eyes! They've promised AGI for decades. Where's my robot maid?"
3. Researcher who's been making steady progress in a niche subfield of optimization algorithms at Nebraska State University for the last 20 years: "huh?"
An old friend of mine went to work at a similar company, seemingly with no qualms. He praised how “nice” the ceo was. It was a sad and eye-opening experience of losing respect for someone.
The thing is, a lot of ordinary people in tech are naive, gullible, more intelligent than wise, easily flattered, limited to first-order thinking socially-speaking, and obsessed with rules and systems. Then there’s another stratum of actors on top who are all of the above, and sociopathic to boot.
I don’t know, I think it’s just the way it is. I’ve become very disillusioned with the ability of ‘tech people’ as a class to work for good.
Right, yeah, it’s a funny piece of terminology! The sense in which a ‘variable’ ‘varies’ isn’t that its value changes in time, but that its value is context-dependent. This is the same sense of the word as used in math!
people are so scared of losing market share because of art choice they make all of their products smooth dark grey rectangles with no features.
ugly.
at least this one has some sense of beauty, the courage to make a decision about what looks good to them and act on it. they'll probably have to change the heptagon shape because no way that becomes a standard
it costs so little to add artistic flair to a product, its really a shame fewer companies do
When I was a child, I was so enchanted by the look of the Cray supercomputers of old with their in-built furniture and great open arrays of status indicators. There is really something to making a machine show you the wonder of creation it unlocks
It looks super cool. I feel like I'm watching cyberpunk come to life with the way we're talking about technology these days, but this also looks straight out of the Neuromancer of my imagination.
An older CS professor (whose book, I’m guessing, about half of HN posters have read) told me essentially the same thing.
He’s one of the best people to talk to in the department. Kind, passionate and compassionate, interested first and foremost in ideas and people. No ego, doesn’t care about telling anyone he’s smarter than them (he is though), just wants to figure things out together.
I agree that this is very important. The flip side of that you will also have entrenched lazies who refuse to keep up with new knowledge, get comfy in their chair, plus grow a big ego etc. It's a tradeoff.
You have to give breathing room for creativity to unfold, but the breathing room can also be taken advantage of.
Also, it used to be more accepted to play elite inside baseball, hiring based on prestige, gut feel and recommendation. Today it's not too different in reality, but today we expect more egalitarianism and objectivity, and do literature metrics become emphasized. And therefore those must be chased.
Similar to test prep grind more broadly. More egalitarianism and accountability lead to tougher competition but more justice but less breathing room and more grind and less time for creative freedom.
reply