It does NOT remain to be seen. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/26/accenture-plans-on-exiting-s... Big players are already moving in the direction of "join us or leave us". So if you can't keep up and you aren't developing or "reinventing" something faster with the help of AI, it was nice knowing you.
I didn't say don't use AI at all, I said give it the boilerplate, rote work. Developers can still work on more interesting things. Maybe not all the interesting things.
That may be fine ... if it remains your choice. I'm saying companies are outmoding people (programmers, designers, managers, et al) who don't leverage AI to do their job the fastest. If one programmer uses AI to do boilerplate and then codes the interesting bits personally and it takes a week and another does it all with AI (orchestrating agents, etc) and it takes 2 hours and produces the same output (not code but business value), the AI orchestrator/manager will be valued above the former.
Yes! I am not advocating for the 2 hours and the "vision" of managers and CEOs. Quite the contrary. But it is the world we live in for now. It's messy and chaotic and many people may (will?) be hurt. I don't like it. But I'm trying to be one of the "smart people". What does that look like? I hope I find out.
I don't like it, either. I hear people ranting about doing "everything with AI" on one meeting, and what a productivity boost it is, then I get tagged on a dumpster fire PR full of slop and emoji filled log statements. Like did you even look at your code at all? "Oh sorry I don't know how that got in there!"
These are the same employers that mandate return to office for distributed teams and micro-manage every access of our work. I think we know how its going to play out.
problem today is that there is no "sink" for money to go to when it flows upwards. we have resorted to raising interest rates to curb inflation, but that doesn't fix the problem, it just gives them an alternative income source (bonds/fixed income)
I'm not a hard socialist or anything, but the economics don't make sense. if there's cheap credit and the money supply perpetually expands without a sink, of course people with the most capital will just compound their wealth.
so much of the "economy" orbits around the capital markets and number going up. it's getting detached from reality. or maybe I'm just missing something.
what makes you think that's actually possible? maybe if you really had the connections and sales experience etc...
but also, if that were possible, then why wouldn't prices go down? why would the value of such labor stay so high if the same thing can be done by other individuals?
I saw it happen more back in the day compared to now. Point being, nobody batted an eyelash at being entirely dependent on some company's proprietary tech. It was how money was made in the business.
I run sid (debian's unstable branch) on all my systems, it's great! With experimental pinned on at low priority! It's great, I love it!
I'm not quite bold enough to recommend it to people but if anyone asks I would definitely say yes to running sid. Apt-pin for testing at low priority is good to have, just because sometimes there's lag when one library updates for everyone using it to update, and you can get unsatisfiable dependencies.
Debian has multiple editions, if you want Arch, go for sid/testing.
Stable is stable as in "must not be broken at all costs" kind of stable.
basically everything works just fine. there's occasionally a rare crash or gnome reset where you need to login again, but other than that not many problems.
There are times where there are known bugs in Debian which are purposely not fixed but instead documented and worked around. That’s part of the stability promise. The behaviour shall not change which sometimes includes “bug as a feature”
Again, I like Debian a lot as a distro (much more than Ubuntu), but it's just not the same as a distro like Arch, even when you're on testing. Sid is close, but between Arch and sid... I've actually found fewer issues on Arch, and since there's an existing expectation that the community maintains and documents much of the software in AUR, there's almost always someone actually paying attention and updating things, rather than only getting around to it later.
It's not that Debian is a bad release, but it's the difference in a game on steam being completely unavailable for a few hours (Arch) or 10 days (Debian testing) due to an upstream issue.
I swapped a while back, mostly because I kept hitting issues that are accurately described and resolved by steps coming from Arch's community, even on distros like Debian and Fedora.
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The power in debian is still that Ubuntu has made it very popular for folks doing commercial/closed source releases to provide a .deb by default. Won't always work... but at least they're targeting your distro (or almost always, ubuntu, but usually close enough).
Same for Fedora with the Redhat enterprise connections.
But I've generally found that the community in Arch is doing a better job at actually dogfooding, testing, and fixing the commercial software than most of the companies that release it... which is sad, but reality.
Arch has plenty of its own issues, but "Stale software" isn't the one to challenge it on. Much better giving it a pass due to arch/platform support limitations, security or stability needs, etc... All those are entirely valid critiques, and reasonable drivers for sticking to something like Debian.
Exactly. I hear this "wow finally I can just let Claude work on a ticket while I get coffee!" stuff and it makes me wonder why none of these people feel threatened in any way?
And if you can be so productive, then where exactly do we need this surplus productivity in software right now when were no longer in the "digital transformation" phase?
I don't feel threatened because no matter how tools, platforms and languages improved, no matter how much faster I could produce and distribute working applications, there has never been a shortage of higher level problems to solve.
Now if the only thing I was doing was writing code to a specification written by someone else, then I would be scared, but in my quarter century career that has never been the case. Even at my first job as a junior web developer before graduating college, there was always a conversation with stakeholders and I always had input on what was being built. I get that not every programmer had that experience, but to me that's always been the majority of the value that software developers bring, the code itself is just an implementation detail.
I can't say that I won't miss hand-crafting all the code, there certainly was something meditative about it, but I'm sure some of the original ENIAC programmers felt the same way about plugging in cables to make circuits. The world of tech moves fast, and nostalgia doesn't pay the bills.
> there has never been a shortage of higher level problems to solve.
True, but whether all those problems are SEEN worth chasing business wise is another matter. Short term is what matters most for individuals currently in the field, and short term is less devs needed which leads to drop in salaries and higher competition. You will have a job but if you explore the job market you will find it much harder to get a job you want at the salary you want without facing huge competition. At the same time, your current employer might be less likely to give you salary raises because they know you bargaining power has decreased due to the job market conditions.
Maybe in 40 years time, new problems will change the job market dynamics but you will likely be near retirement by then
Smart devs know this is the beginning of the end of high paying dev work. Once the LLM's get really good, most dev work will go to the lowest bidder. Just like factory work did 30 years ago.
Not even factory work, classic engineering jobs in general. SWE sucked all the air out of the engineering room, because the pay/benefits/job prospects were just head and shoulders better.
We had a fresh out of school EE hire who left our company for an SWE position 6 months into his job with us, for a position that paid the same (plus full remote with a food stipend) as our Director of Engineering. A 23 yr old getting on offer above what a 54 yr old with 30 years experience was making.
For a few years there, you had to be an idi...making sub-optimal decisions, to choose anything other than becoming an techy.
Make as much money as you can while you still can before the bottom falls out. Or go work for one of the AI companies on AI. Always better to sell picks and shovels than dig for gold. Eventually the gold runs out where you are.
Become a plutocrat, or be useful to plutocrats. I don't have the moral flexibility for the former, but plutes tend to care about their images, legacies, and mewling broods. A clever person can find a way to be the latter.
Bit naive to think that positive pattern will hold for the next ten years or so or whatever time is left between now and your retirement. And arguably, the later that positive pattern changes is worse for you because retraining as an older person has its own challenges.
personally I haven't used tiktok ever but Instagram reels are the real thing
however, I must say that youtube shorts is the worst of the bunch, even if I'm trying to be entertained, it's full of just slop spam and "top 5" or something that I'm not interested in, while reels are actually funny
I remember I'd sometimes try and get into it, scrolling just to see if I can find one thing that's actually good and just quitting because I got frustrated.
it's truly the worst of the bunch in my opinion.
and they've definitely made the overall experience worse on youtube while focusing all efforts on shorts and funneling you to it.
Tiktok, Instagram reels, Facebook reels/shorts, YouTube Shorts ... to me these are all equally bad. I'm sure there are many other sources of attention destruction.
I have headphones on 24/7 and while outside, but if I didn't have them I wouldn't exactly mind, I'd probably widh I wouldn't have to hear the loud noises (cars, bus engine sound etc)
I feel like with Tikatok etc. its really just that your entire attention both audio and visual is stuck in that thing, it's not an auxiliary activity
I didn't really notice it at first but on a second read it's full of this crap?
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