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What about sourcing and the cost of energy? Solar Panels more efficient, no bad weather, and 100% in sunlight (depending on orbit) in space. Not that it makes up for the items you listed, but it may not be true that everything is more difficult in space.

Let's say with no atmosphere and no night cycle, a space solar panel is 5x better. Deploying 5x as many solar panels on the ground is still going to come in way under the budget of the space equivalent.

And it's not the same at all. 5x the solar panels on the ground means 5x the power output in the day, still 0 at night. So you'd need batteries. If you add in bad weather and winter, you may need battery capacity for days, weeks or even months, shifting the cost to batteries while still relying on nuclear of fossil backups in case your battery dies or some 3/4/5-sigma weather event outside what you designed for occurs.

Or you put the data centers at different points on earth?

Or you float them on the ocean circumnavigating the earth?

Or we put the datacenters on giant Zeppelins orbiting above the clouds?

If we are doing fantasy tech solutions to space problems, why not for a million other more sensible options?


> Or you put the data centers at different points on earth? > Or you float them on the ocean circumnavigating the earth?

What that does have to do with anything? If you want to solar-power them, you still are subject to terrestrial effects. You can't just shut off a data center at night.

> Or we put the datacenters on giant Zeppelins orbiting above the clouds?

They'd have to fly at 50,000+ ft to be clear of clouds, I doubt you can lift heavy payloads this high using bouyancy given the low air density. High risk to people on the ground in case of failure because no re-entry.

> If we are doing fantasy tech solutions to space problems, why not for a million other more sensible options?

How is this a fantasy? With Starlink operational, this hardly seems a mere 'fantasy'.


> You can't just shut off a data center at night.

Why not?

A capacity problem can be solved by having another data center the other side of the earth.

If it's that the power cycling causes equipment to fail earlier, then that can be addressed far more easily than radiation hardening all equipment so that it can function in space.


Because GPUs are expensive, much more expensive than launch costs if they get starship to the low end of the range they’re aiming for, and you want your expensive equipment running as much as possible to amortize the cost down?

That's with current launch costs, right? Nobody is claiming it's economic without another huge fall in launch costs, but that's what SpaceX is doing.

It wouldn't make sense if launch was free and it will never be

just take cost of getting kg in space and compare it to how much solar panel will generate

Current satellites get around 150W/kg from solar panels. Cost of launching 1kg to space is ~$2000. So we're at $13.3(3)/Watt. We need to double it because same amount need to be dissipated so let's round it to $27

One NVidia GB200 rack is ~120kW. To just power it, you need to send $3 240 000 worth of payload into space. Then you need to send additional $3 106 000 (rack of them is 1553kg) worth of servers. Plus some extra for piping


Over 10 years ago, the best satellites had 500W/kg [2]. Modern solar panels that are designed to be light are at 200g per sqm [1]. That's 5sqm per kg. One sqm generates ca. 500W. So we're at 2.5kW per kg. Some people claim 4.3kW/kg possible.

Starship launch costs have a $100/kg goal, so we'd be at $40 / kW, or $4800 for a 120kW cluster.

120kW is 1GWh annually, costs you around $130k in Europe per year to operate. ROI 14 days. Even if launch costs aren't that low in the beginning and there's a lot more stuff to send up, your ROI might be a year or so, which is still good.

[1] - https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/space/ultr... [2] - https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/12824/lightest-pos...


What if you treat that launch costs goal as just a marketing promise. Invest in reality, not in billionaire's fantasies.

> What if you treat that launch costs goal as just a marketing promise.

Then it's roughly 10x-15x and still works.

> Invest in reality, not in billionaire's fantasies.

SpaceX has dramatically reduced payload cost already. How is that a fantasy?


I'm stretched to think of one thing that is easier in space. Anything I could imagine still requires getting there (in one piece)

Death, and some science. That's it?

Horseshoes.

Achieving a zero-gravity environment, or a vacuum?

Noise insulation.

Solar panels in space are more efficient, but on the ground we have dead dinosaurs we can burn. The efficiency gain is also more than offset by the fact that you can't replace a worn out panel. A few years into the life of your satellite its power production drops.

If they plan to put this things in a low orbit their useful life before reentry is low anyway.

A quick search gave me a lifespan of around 5 years for a starlink satellite.

If you put in orbit a steady stream of new satellites every year maintenance is not an issue, you just stop using worn out or broken ones.


Terrestrial data centers save money and recoup costs by salvaging and recycling components, so what you're saying here is that space-based datacenters are even less competitive than we previously estimated.

No idea how quickly they wear out in space with 24x7 irradiance and space temps, but on the earth, they’re at something like 80% capacity after 25 years. So seems like you could control how long they have via overpanelling?

> Solar panels in space are more efficient...

... if you completely ignore the difficulty of getting them up there. I'd be interested to see a comparison between the amount of energy required to get a solar panel into space, and the amount of energy it produces during its lifetime there. I wouldn't be surprised if it were a net negative; getting mass into orbit requires a tremendous amount of energy, and putting it there with a rocket is not an efficient process.


My sketchy napkin math gives an order of magnitude of a few months of panel output to get it in space.

5kg, 500W panel (don’t exactly know what the ratio is for a panel plus protection and frame for space, might be a few times better than this)

Say it produces about 350kWh per month before losses.

Mass to LEO is something like 10x the weight in fuel alone, so that’s going to be maybe 500kWh. Plus cryogenics etc.

So not actually that bad


The scammer isn't trying to get the earnest money, they are trying to get the full sale price.

Well yes, I assume that too. But the article says they'll pocket the earnest money which makes zero sense. Probably another example of someone incapable of writing an article by themselves and used an LLM.

>"7. If they get farther they’ll pocket the earnest money deposit which would have been significant in my case."


Is there a single case of the scammer getting a single dollar from one of these scams? My suspicion is that there isn't. (Everyone who doesn't know the answer and isn't curious should downvote me.)

It isn't just about sales, it is about margin. F150 Lightning was losing money on each unit produced - they cost about 40% more to product than they sold for. Cybertruck has a positive gross margin, so even though sales are terrible, they don't have have a pressing financial need to cancel it.

Tesla doesn't disclose the gross margin on Cybertruck. They may say it is positive but if nobody knows what constituted those gross margins or what they amounted to, it's pretty much meaningless.

Hard to imagine it being profitable given the very low utilization of the production line and associated tooling.

I agree. I am quite confident that if someone challenges them on this claim, they will say it was non-GAAP gross margin, which excluded all the crucial expenses

Just last week it was revealed that it had gotten an ESRB rating (now removed). So it must have been pretty far along in development.

https://web.archive.org/web/20260114063329/https://www.esrb....


What happens to all that content/work when this sort of thing happens? Just gone gone or?

Usually gone or retooled for something else. Even just within the Prince of Persia series, they had a game called Prince of Persia: Assassins that was canceled and turned into Assassin's Creed. There was also a sequel to Prince of Persia 2008 in development that was cancelled and never showed up again. You can even find footage from both of these games online, but they will never see the light of day unless someone leaks them (which does happen sometimes).

Thanks

France is an example. They allowed mail in voting, had issues with fraud, then banned it.

https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/57152/why-isnt-...


… in 1975.

I have EXCELLENT, current news for you, comrade. Since then, I can point you to six States in the USA that have implemented mail-in voting that is demonstrable secure and gives far more people the ability to vote than mandatory in-person voting. Isn’t that simply wonderful to hear? And, to boot, lest you worry about volume, one of those States alone (sunny California) is nearly the same population as France was in 1975! So even having large populations vote entirely by mail is proven to be a non-issue! Phew, I’m glad we can stop trotting out fear mongering and speculative arguments of unproven inevitable doom to stupidly disenfranchise voters!


There are open accusations of mail-in fraud in California, not a settled issue. France is an interesting example because there was fraud, settled issue.

It seems obvious, no?

1: Vote in person, with ID

2: Mail ballots out, mail ballots in

Which will have more fraud?


France isn’t that interesting of an example given the exponential changes to how mail-in ballots work that have been implemented in the last 50 years. Using France as your lone example is like citing to the Challenger launch and ignoring every subsequent success in deciding if you’re going to launch a rocket. It’s almost delusional.

this is a classic "nice story, bro".


to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function.

No, it is surprising, as noted in the article, because basic economics suggests that suppliers will adjust pricing, and eat some of the tariff to keep their products competitive. Page 5:

This finding was initially surprising to some observers. Standard economic models suggest that the incidence of a tariff depends on the relative elasticities of supply and demand. If foreign exporters face highly elastic demand (meaning buyers can easily switch to alternatives), they might be expected to absorb part of the tariff to remain competitive.


What that view ignores is the opposite which is what happens if sellers can easily switch to new alternatives?

ie what happens if global demand exceeds supply and a lot of companies have never tried to find other markets because of the inertia required to do so - but if they are pushed by tariffs they find there are alternative customers out there.

As an example - Canada appear to replaced trading food for cars with the US, to food for cars with China.

https://www.facebook.com/TechXnew/posts/canada-has-made-a-de...


that assumes that external suppliers were not already at their cheapest price point and that they were not competing with each other already

it also assumes that there are no other alternative markets to sell to or that supplier capacity is equally elastic; the US might be a high margin market to sell to, but if you only have a fixed amount of product to sell then it makes no sense to eat the high cost of a tariff to keep selling a low margin product when you can instead sell your product at a medium margin in europe

building out more supply for a product is often capital intensive if you want to make it at an economically efficient price point in these times; efficiencies of scale are hard to overcome and a rapid shift of economic policies makes anyone uncertain about future investment so it takes a very long time for these supply chains to rebalance, if they ever do


> If foreign exporters face highly elastic demand (meaning buyers can easily switch to alternatives)

That's a huge 'if'.


Yes, however the next paragraph outlines why it wasn’t surprising to other observers. Summarized, low competition and structural constraints.


Yes, the next paragraph explains why the surprised economists were wrong. I agree with the GP though that the GGP was too quick to say

> to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function.


Yes, so turns out people with a basic grasp of how economies function can have different models of how things work. This a great paper, and important in that it shows who is paying the tariffs in the examples they looked at. What it still leaves unaddressed is the obvious prediction of increase in CPI not really showing up.


I'm trying to buy a tool made in Pennsylvania but which for some coincidence is popular in Canada, and to my surprise all the US online suppliers have doubled their prices to match Canadian online suppliers after shipping.


FWIW, the MD-11 was designed by McDonnell Douglas, and manufactured by McDonnell Douglas in 1991, before the Boeing merger. A McDonnell Douglas DC-10 failed in a similar way in Chicago in 1979, so it the issue may go way back.


AA Flight 191 in 1979, 273 dead. American Airlines invented their own engine removal procedure using a forklift and damaged a pylon and mounting bracket. The engine ripped off the wing on takeoff.


Interestingly, the reason American Airlines was removing the engines (and pylons) in the first place was to replace that same aft bearing. McDonnell-Douglas had found that the aft bearing could wear out sooner than expected and issued a service bulletin requiring replacement. There is mention of it in the AA191 NTSB report[1] and also at Admiral Cloudberg's article on the accident[2].

[1] https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/... [2] https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/rain-of-fire-falling-the...


I'm reasonably certain it was McDonnel Douglas that acquired Boeing with Boeing's own money. Most likely everyone who designed that plane has retired at this point anyways.


It's commonly trotted out, but the people who spearheaded the disastrous changes including mass outsourcing were Boeing for life - with McD people writing alarming memos about outsourcing goals set for Dreamliner


This would be a better defense if not for the aphorism that "McDonnell-Douglas bought Boeing with Boeing's money"


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86jx18y9e2o

Apple has responded and has started moving a lot of manufacturing out of China. It just makes sense for risk management.


From your article:

> Meanwhile, Vietnam will be the chief manufacturing hub "for almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch and AirPods product sold in the US".

> We do expect the majority of iPhones sold in US will have India as their country of origin," Mr Cook said.

Still not made in the US and no plan to change that. They will be selling products made in India/Vietnam domestically and products made in China internationally.

The tariffs are not bringing these jobs home.


Well, from your article:

> China will remain the country of origin for the vast majority of total products sold outside the US, he added.

And international sales are a solid majority of Apple's revenue.


The amount of sugar in Coke hasn't changed in the last 40 years, and probably longer than that. It's been consistent at ~39g/12oz, even through the "New Coke" debacle. Wouldn't be surprised if Coke in the 40s, with sugar rationing, had less sugar though.


"The amount of sugar in Coke hasn't changed in the last 40 years,…"

Likely so, but there's some evidence it's different in different markets. That's why I made my reference point the 1940s. I first tasted Coke in the late 1950s in a market outside the US and it was definitely less sweet than it is nowadays.


> The amount of sugar in Coke hasn't changed in the last 40 years

Except for when it has. e.g.: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/coke-cuts-sweetness-in-cana...


*hasn't changed in the last 40 years in the United States


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