I'm a SWE manager as well. I always tell my team that learning is part of the job, and so it can happen on the job. To be honest, it worked out pretty well. and I lead by example, I'll read something interesting during work and share it with the team.
While I agree with everything you said, Amazon’s problems aren’t just Kiro messing up. It’s a brain drain due to layoffs, and then people quitting because of the continuous layoff culture.
While publicly they might say this is AI driven, I think that’s mostly BS.
Anyway, that doesn’t take away from your point, just adds additional context to the outages.
I disagree. There's definitely _some_ who will use these tools to build systems for themselves. But do you think the chef who's been pulling insane hours in the restaurant wants to come home and build his own software? Or the teacher who just had to deal with an annoying classroom all day?
People want software that just works, they'll pay for it, they don't want to use their computers to build their own software. That idea is just software and computer geeks (said affectionately) projecting their own desires on a larger community.
Does it have to be mutually exclusive? On-the-fly software does not destroy software. Gatekeeping software creation does not mean shoving the existing creators out, it just means creating a larger space that others can occupy, like when 'real' programmers had to slowly permit 'script kiddies' into their spaces. All feels a bit 'old guard' vs 'new guard'.
Not mutually exclusive, but I thought your initial post painted an overly rosy picture with the sentence "[..] allowing millions of people to finally use the devices they've been sitting in front of all these years".
I don't think it's happening at this scale. I'll admit I have no real data to back that up, it's just a hunch really. But I find it hard to believe that those people whom previously weren't interested in building software are now suddenly interested to build stuff with an LLM. I'm sure _some_ people are doing this, and then they either hit roadblocks and quit or stick with it an learn actual software engineering.
Looking at my non-tech bubble of friends and family, I don't see anyone actually doing that. I think it's a vocal minority that is doing this. That's just anecdata of course.
I think using GPT et.al. to create a bespoke tool to do what you need is giving the average home user too much credit. What I see more of is just using the prompt in the place of software to create an outcome. "Transcribe this recording", "give me a synopsis of the Godfather films", "How can I wow my girlfriend?". The fraction of home users who are using this to create software is likely highly limited to people with no skills trying to make apps to sell, which is not a tool to help them with something else. Even the software devs I know are using tools made for them, not making their own Claude Code or Cursor.
Right now, the greenfield is in how you use these tools. Making a bespoke specialized tool for yourself, or automating onboarding or CICD setups with simple commands or building bridges between "gatekept" existing software and agents are ripe for growth.
I get that we should see this as a good thing, but I see it as entering the last act of a play. Thousands of people are doing these things and coming up with uses for the tools around the clock. Novel uses for the technology will all be exhausted in the next couple of years and there will be less room for innovation than there was before LLMs.
We’re not there yet, but that chef or that teacher definitely would want an AI voice assistant as good as the computer in Star Trek. Maybe to achieve that, a language model builds software entirely autonomously and runs it to carry out the user’s command. Or maybe they want the computer to build them software that they can then use to do their own work more efficiently.
> We’re not there yet, but that chef or that teacher definitely would want an AI voice assistant as good as the computer in Star Trek.
Since you brought up Star Trek, a good analogue for AI would be the holodeck. Given the appropriate prompts, it produces amazing scenery and even immersive fantasy narratives.
But occasionally, it goes haywire, the safeties no longer work, and the characters from your fictional adventure try to kill you.
My SO is now using it. I’m waiting for her impressions to decide if I want to do so.
The dentist told me I’d only need it for like 3-4 months, minor corrections. But it seems like such a hassle. Always having to remove it before eating anywhere, no coffee, and gotta make sure I’d always travel with the next set of aligners etc.
Because it’s annoying to remove and clean for eating each time, it will get to a point where coffee or the odd snack is not worth the hassle. Maybe once in the year process did I find it worth it to remove it to eat fourth time in a day. It’s a weird reorienting. Like jumping into a new energy level that is more taxing, but is in a minima such that you want to stay to 3 meals a day.
I am nearing the end, depending on the refinements. The first two weeks I was regretting it, but adjusted quickly. Honestly for me the issue was more that I did not like the way my teeth feel with the trays out (and the rough field of the aligners on the teeth). The eating was not that big of a deal. I have a travel toothbrush and case I keep with me. It has been pretty easy.
Still looking forward to getting the stuff off my teeth.
Just do what I did: ignore your orthodontist and wear them only at night, smashing them into your mouth like some kind of idiotic brute. 4 years later, great teeth!
You teeth are literally being pushed to a new position. So if you dont use the braces for the "minimum" duration, you teeth may not be in a place where they need to be for the second set of braces to start working. So your 2nd braces are going to be pushing more and that might cause damage to your teeth/gums. Think of it like trying to do splits. If you have never done them ever before and you try to do them on your first try, then you gonna break whatever you have down there. But if you keep at it then day by day you will notice progress. The braces are like that. Each one eases you into the next stage if that makes sense.
Oh wow, coincidentally I watched a Chuck Norris film recently with my (90 year old) grandmother, which resulted in me diving down a bunch of Chuck Norris memes for the first time in more than a decade.
Or just give them access to “tokens” as needed by business use-case? Doesn’t make sense to see this as a salary/benefit and then also expect them to use it for work related tasks.
And even if they did go back to normal for the next presidency - why trust it? Their entire political system is set up so that the winds can change entirely every 4 years.
If the people voted Trump in to office twice, it’ll happen again. It’s a divided country where propaganda has a strong hold.
Useful stability can be achieved again, either “back to normal” as mentioned elsewhere in this thread or “forward to something different but better (and not crap like it is now)”, but it is going to take at least a few terms, maybe several. Even if it did happen more quickly, it will take that long for those of us on the outside to trust it, reputational damage like this can not be undone quickly.
> Do not put swap on an SSD you care about at all.
This.
Many people rediscovering what the purpose of swap files are, but will still find a way to abuse it without knowing that they are actually destroying their SSD.
You can of course monitor SMART wearout indicators to check whether this is happening. Casual use of swap for non LLM-use is actually fine since "cold" ephemeral data will be swapped out first and that will never get written to; KV cache is mostly fine since it's similarly append-only so writes are tolerably small; but yes, more general LLM inference totally breaks that limited-writes pattern and will wear out/kill your media.
Didn't pick up on that when I was there. But I'll say that Chichen is definitely worth a visit and only about a 2h drive from Cancun! You can do a tour with a group like Xcaret so you don't even have to drive there yourself.
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